The real test for whether Iraq has increased on decreased al-Qaeda recruiting isn't likely to be fully known until a few years from now when and if veterans of the Iraqi jihad start showing up to cause trouble in other parts of the world at the behest of bin Laden or his successors the way their predecessors who served in Afghanistan or Chechnya have. As I noted in my commentary on one of Gerecht's articles for the Weekly Standard, if you're just looking at the 2004 enrollment in the madrassas like Binori Town that supply al-Qaeda's officer corps, the people to be worried about are Thais, not Arabs. This is not to downplay the threat posed by the Iraq-hardened jihadis, but rather to keep it in perspective at this point.
Interesting read.
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