When Does China's "Water Cannon" Weapon Use Become an Act of Armed Conflict?

China's bullying of the Philippines may trigger a defense agreement with the U.S. as set out in China’s Attacks on Philippine Resupply Missions Test 70-Year-Old Defense Pact

Six days after China Coast Guard cutters blasted out the windows of a Philippine resupply ship with a water cannon, Manila is weighing whether a 70-year-old mutual defense pact could compel the U.S. military to defend Filipino forces in the South China Sea as a result.

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The attack, the ninth and most aggressive since Chinese cutters restarted a campaign blocking the monthly resupply runs to the World War II-era Sierra Madre, is prompting politicians, analysts and lawyers across the Pacific to weigh the U.S. obligation to come to Manila’s aid under a 1951 mutual defense pact.

Both the U.S. State and Defense departments issued statements this week pledging commitment to the treaty.

“The United States reaffirms that Article IV of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft – including those of its Coast Guard – anywhere in the South China Sea,” reads the statement from Foggy Bottom.

While the worst-case scenario under the defense treaty could lead to open war with China, the agreement has options for the U.S. to support Manila diplomatically short of armed conflict. However, the 1951 treaty’s application in the 21st century raises questions about whether the Chinese use of water cannons constitutes an armed attack or if the resupply missions are categorized as civilian or military, opening up several legal interpretations.

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The question of whether such use of water cannons by China constitutes an "armed" attack sufficient to trigger the defense pact has been frequently raised on our Midrats podcast. China's assertion of entitlement to vast areas of the South China Sea and its aggressive efforts to enforce those claims despite a lack of legal justification are an interesting test case in how close to a line it can walk before triggering similar counter activities or more. However, it is vital that the U.S. support, in every way possible, our allies and treaty partners in the region.